PostBadge tag to show // FeedBurner FeedFlare. // ------------------------- // FeedBurner account and feed required. // Sign up at http://feedburner.com //================================================ class module_feedflare { function init(){ global $gregarious; $gregarious->add_settings ( array ( 'feedburner_url' => '' ) ); $gregarious->add_page ( 'FeedFlare', 'modules/feed-flare/icn_Flare.png', 'page_feedflare();', 'feedFlare' ); } function postbadge_tags(){ return array ( array ( 'tag' => '%FLARE%', 'replacewith' => 'feed_flare("",false)' ), ); } function update_info(){ return 100; } } //------------------------------------------ // TEMPlATE TAGS //------------------------------------------ function feed_flare($settings = '', $echo = true){ global $wp_query; $post = $wp_query->post; $sets = array('postID' => $post->ID, 'before' => '', 'after' => 'Gregarious FeedFlare', 'force' => 0 ); grab_sets($settings, $sets); if ( !$sets['force'] && hideOnID($sets['postID']) ){ return ''; } if( !$path = _get_feedburner_url() ) return ''; if( substr( $path, -1 ) == '/' ){ $path = substr( $path, 0, strlen( $path ) -1 ); } $path = str_replace ( 'feedburner.com/', 'feedburner.com/~s/', $path ); $path .= '?i='.get_permalink($sets['postID']); $result = $sets['before'] . "" . $sets['after']; if($echo) echo $result; else return $result; } function _get_feedburner_url(){ $feedurl = greg_get_option( 'feedburner_url' ); if ( $feedurl ){ return attribute_escape($feedurl); } else { $feedburner_settings = get_option('feedburner_settings'); if( is_array($feedburner_settings) && ($feedurl = $feedburner_settings['feedburner_url']) ) { return attribute_escape($feedurl); } else { return false; } } } //------------------------------------------ // OPTIONS PAGE //------------------------------------------ function page_feedflare(){ $feedurl = _get_feedburner_url(); ?> Tag Archive for ‘Democrats’ at spencerb.net

Tag Archive for 'Democrats'

What Have Governments Learned from the Financial Crisis?

Lesson #1 – Tax Banks

Wait….what?

Fresh from the FT:

Gordon Brown said on Wednesday the world’s leading economies were close to agreeing a global bank tax, amid hopes in Downing Street that a deal can be concluded at the G20 summit in Canada in June.

The prime minister said those with the “broadest shoulders” should pay more, and insisted that the tax would raise “a substantial amount of additional money”. He admitted: “It’s not as high as you would like it to be because of avoidance.”

Click to continue reading “What Have Governments Learned from the Financial Crisis?”

Massachusetts Senate Victory

While the title may be more or less true depending on the reader, the results of a particularly interesting election have hit the papers this morning. Scott Brown, a Republican from the state of Massachusetts, has defeated his opponent Martha Coakley.

Click to continue reading “Massachusetts Senate Victory”

Wall Street Reform

I have several posts incubating right now…although I’m not sure exactly why.  So, my glorious return to blogging will come through a tried and true set of topics that have frequently made the pages of this blog – politics/economics.

If you have a minute and some interest in what the result of the financial crisis will be in terms of reforming financial regulation, then take a look at this article.  In all honesty, it is a bit lengthy and will take you more than a minute, but it is worth the read.  Otherwise, I wouldn’t have chosen it for this post.

It is an opinion piece from the FT that goes through some of the political reasons why this bill will be ‘too weak to succeed’ in regulating banks that have become ‘too big to fail’.  It seems at best we will have a continuation of the Q1 2009 status quo with a few new acronyms reminding us that there are some new regulatory agencies.  The rest of the changes, it seems, took place last winter.  These weren’t fundamental changes to regulation, instead we now see a few less bank names in the newspaper because they have either gone out of business or merged.

Don’t get me wrong here.  I’m not some vehement anti-Wall Street person.  I thought the Wall Street/Main Street distinction that plagued the last election was slightly ridiculous.  The point is, and I think this is one that I make frequently, government regulation and institutions shape the world that we live in for the better and the worse.

This is true for the incentives that tax schemes create, regulation of the health insurance industry, and of financial markets and institutions.  I found this point in the FT article particularly interesting:

Link!

Nor is anyone talking seriously about using antitrust laws to break up the biggest banks – the traditional tonic for any capitalist entity that is “too big to fail”. Five giant Wall Street banks now dominate US finance. If it was in the public’s interest to break up giant oil companies and railroads a century ago, and the mammoth telephone company AT&T, it is not unreasonable to break up the almost infinitely extensive tangles of Citigroup, Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. No one has offered a clear reason why giant banks are important to the US economy. Logic and experience suggests the reverse.

If, as taxpayers, we are guaranteeing trillions of dollars of bank assets and the viability of something as fickle as a company, we should consider what we are getting into and whether there is a better way to organize that industry.

I’m not an expert on this subject, but I wonder if people who are experts (or even lawmakers) are considering the alternatives.  This is just one idea that popped up on the computer screen of a twenty-something student.  Where is the debate?  I guess…it is not surprising that one ‘pet’ bill is being ushered through, while everyone tries to make their ends meet.  I suppose, as the 2008 election showed us, voters want politicians to speak economics and business, but not so much that they lose their average Joe likeability.

Short Post on Cap and Trade

Mr. Obama on Thursday called it “a vote of historic proportions … that will open the door to a clean energy economy” and green jobs. “It will create millions of new jobs,” Ms. Pelosi insisted.

From: WSJ Link

This makes absolutely no sense to me. It refers to a recent House vote that clears a hurdle for passing a cap and trade bill. I’ll give Obama the claim that it will lead to green jobs. Of course, when you effectively tax carbon through a cap and trade system, it will cause a shift to renewable “green” energy sources. This will likely lead to the creation of green jobs.

Pelosi’s claim that enacting cap and trade will create millions of jobs makes 0 (zero) sense. First, just think about that claim–millions of jobs. We’ve been losing hundreds of thousands of jobs per month. Charging companies for emissions is going to create millions of jobs?

Yes, thousands of jobs will be shifted to other, possibly new, industries, as Obama’s comment indicates. Millions of jobs are not going to appear because of a RELATIVE change in price.

Example: Ketchup becomes more expensive than mustard. The condiment industry employs 100 people. The relative increase in cost of ketchup is not going to cause the total jobs to go to 120 (for instance). Instead, as demand for mustard goes up to lower costs, production will increase for mustard and fall for ketchup. A relative price increase will not effect overall consumption in a way that will dramatically change the total level of employment. Some ketchup folks will move to the mustard industry.

This example is simple, but the logic holds, in my opinion, for analyzing a cap and trade scheme. Especially, against such a ridiculous claim like creating millions of jobs. Shifting jobs is far appropriate.

Alternative example would be an absolute change in price, something that effects overall productivity. If condiments become cheaper, people will change their buying habits to buy more overall. This will increase the employment level because overall production increased. This example could include where mustard benefits more than ketchup and the mustard industry DOES uniquely create a bunch of new jobs.

This post was supposed to be short, but just realize Nancy Pelosi said something ridiculous.

Catching Up on a Few Articles

1. “A Governor and His Veto Pen”

If you live in Minnesota and you missed the politically intense budget battle and use of archaic MN constitutional techniques:

Upon receiving the last spending bill, he announced that he would exercise the power of “unallotment,” which has been on the books since 1939 and which has been used four times. Under it, the governor is allowed to “unallot” (take away) any state spending for which there is no money to pay. Panicked, the DFL passed tax legislation to cover its blowout spending bills, 10 minutes before the session’s end. Too late. The governor said he’d veto the bill and would not be calling back the legislature to do any more mischief.

2. Pawlenty not Running for Reeelection

Possible presidential run?

3. Alternatives to the Democrat’s Health Care Reform

Four Republicans in Congress — Sens. Tom Coburn (Oklahoma) and Richard Burr (North Carolina) and Reps. Paul Ryan (Wisconsin) and Devin Nunes (California) — will today introduce a bill that moves away from federal centralization. Aptly called the Patients’ Choice Act, it provides a path to universal coverage by redirecting current subsidies for health insurance to individuals. It also provides a new safety net that guarantees access to insurance for those with pre-existing conditions.

These are all great articles (especially 1 and 3). Definitely worth the read if you have some time to sit down and spend it with the Wall Street Journal. One final note, everyone should probably subscribe to the paper because it really is the best news source out there. (Note: I am not paid by News Corp)

Some Thoughts on SCOTUS Nominee

…from a much greater legal mind than my own:

Jurisprudentially, moreover, the sorry Didden episode reveals an important lesson about constitutional law. It is always possible to top one bad decision (Kelo) with another (Didden). This does not augur well for a Sotomayor appointment to the Supreme Court. The president should have done better, and the Senate, Democrats and Republicans alike, should subject this dubious nomination to the intense scrutiny that it deserves.

Nominating a justice to the Supreme Court is a great honor for a president. They get to appoint a man or woman for life to the top legal institution in the United States. In some instances, they can change the balance of power on the Court. Judicial philosophy matters. It affects and guides rulings. Even if the balance on the Court does not change, the personalities on the Court certainly will.

A SC nomination does not do much for members of Congress from the President’s party. Yes, Chuck Schumer can repeat the President’s praise of Sotomayor and so can everyone else. But that is not a very productive confirmation hearing.

The nomination does give the opposing party the opportunity to use the hearings as a platform to explain their judicial philosophy vis-a-vis the nominee they oppose. Politically it may not be salient to vote against a nominee. By that I mean several things. First of all, the President has the power, under the advice and consent of the Senate, to appoint justices. The Constitution grants him (or her) that power. In my opinion, the nominee should face scrutiny for their opinions, but that does not mean a nominee should simply be opposed because your party does not have control of the White House. Second, every vote counts. Votes in Congress are not independent of one another, members of Congress have limited political capital, as does the President.

So what can the GOP do? Ask questions with purpose. Be creative. Don’t play softball with a Princeton and Yale Law School grad. Frame questions so that you can use your answers to show the superiority of the judicial philosophy you believe should be on the Court. Sotomayor is certainly running through what questions may be asked. She will be prepared. I’m not saying you need to ambush her, but as a conservative you believe a certain type of justice should be on the Court. Show the public why Sotomayor does not fit that bill.

Speak to moderate America when asking questions about judicial philosophy. I think that they will readily listen. Just because Sotomayor will be confirmed does not mean it has to be a win for Obama. Remember, he might get another nominee in the next 3 years.

Obama Administration Sheds 500,000 Jobs

When we found out the U.S. economy lost about the same number of jobs in January, Obama chided Republican congressmen for not passing stimulus legislation faster. Now, with little fanfare the Obama administration has downgraded their estimate of the stimulus bill’s ability to generate jobs. In fact, it moved form 4 million jobs down to 3.5 million jobs. Of course, the people in January who lost their job are real, not fictional estimates about a ill-planned and rushed bill. They have families, needs and concerns. Futhermore, many Americans have worries about what the future holds.

Republicans chided Obama and House Democrats for not thinking about the opportunity cost of this bill. In other words, if we spend $1, what opportunities do we give up in the future. Put one more way, by spending $1 on ‘the arts’, we give up $1 toward aiding the credit markets or $1 for preventing a home from foreclosing, or from giving up $1 by cutting the taxes of businesses or individuals.

The federal deficit could balloon up to as much as 14% of GDP that is huge. Many economists and politicians (as well as myself) agreed that budget deficits and the national debt should not be a huge concern, especially considering the amazing reputation of government-issued debt from the Treasury (how we finance the debt). If we have a suitable means to finance the debt and the money we are spending seems to be necessary, then we should do it without a concern for debts and deficits. That equation changes when the yearly deficit is predicted to be 14% of GDP. That means the government is spending more than it is taking to the point of being 14% of our entire economy. The world’s largest mind you. That is a dangerous precedent and we have to think about coming back from that.

In 2004 and after, politicians and military advisers warned not to go on a military junket with out an exit plan. Do we have an exit plan for the stimulus bill and the crisis? It does not appear so. The new Treasury Secretary gave us a new proposal that was nearly as vague as Henry Paulson’s. That makes me believe we have just authorized Congress and the President to throw the kitchen sink at the list of solutions to fix the economy. If the Treasury Secretary, hand-picked to deal with this crisis, doesn’t have a specific solution, why are we authorizing Congress to pass a hodge podge bill with different pet projects and Keynesian rhetoric?

We should really think about this crisis…and given a $1 trillion dollars (less than spending a million dollars everyday since Christ’s birth), we should be able to fix this. Throw a $1 trillion against the wall, maybe it’ll stick, but it won’t solve the crisis. Target a $1 trillion solution at the root(s) of the problem and I suspect we’ll get something done.

The Not-so Stimulating Stimulus

From the WSJ:

“Notwithstanding reports that all economists are now Keynesians and that we all support a big increase in the burden of government, we the undersigned do not believe that more government spending is a way to improve economic performance. More government spending by Hoover and Roosevelt did not pull the United States economy out of the Great Depression in the 1930s. More government spending did not solve Japan’s “lost decade” in the 1990s. As such, it is a triumph of hope over experience to believe that more government spending will help the U.S. today. To improve the economy, policymakers should focus on reforms that remove impediments to work, saving, investment and production. Lower tax rates and a reduction in the burden of government are the best ways of using fiscal policy to boost growth. –Statement signed by more than 200 academic economists”

I really don’t like this new stimulus plan going through Congress right now. Seriously, this does not sound like stimulus. First of all, not enough tax cuts in the right places. We need to cut taxes to the point where it changes people’s decision-calculus. Also known as changing the marginal tax rate. This encourages productivity and spending. I can accept, we may need to increase government spending, although the evidence is shaky that it has an effect. But why is Congress proposing spending money on things that won’t occur for another 3+ years? That is not stimulus.

Honestly, this bill seems like 800 billion dollars of pork. Less than 5% is going toward infrastructure and transportation projects.

Here is the WSJ break down on some of these projects:

Here’s another lu-lu: Congress wants to spend $600 million more for the federal government to buy new cars. Uncle Sam already spends $3 billion a year on its fleet of 600,000 vehicles. Congress also wants to spend $7 billion for modernizing federal buildings and facilities. The Smithsonian is targeted to receive $150 million; we love the Smithsonian, too, but this is a job creator?

Another “stimulus” secret is that some $252 billion is for income-transfer payments — that is, not investments that arguably help everyone, but cash or benefits to individuals for doing nothing at all. There’s $81 billion for Medicaid, $36 billion for expanded unemployment benefits, $20 billion for food stamps, and $83 billion for the earned income credit for people who don’t pay income tax. While some of that may be justified to help poorer Americans ride out the recession, they aren’t job creators.

This will cost a lot of political capital for Republicans in Congress, but I believe that it is a worth-while fight. Obama was promising bipartisanship. Some of his cabinet choices made it seem like he would follow through with that promise. This stimulus bill is the Democrats checking items off of their agenda from the past 20 years, not an attempt to get this economy moving.

Obama Removing Elected Officials From Posts

I was unsure how to phrase the title of this post, but it is interesting the number of prominent elected officials that have received appointments to the Obama administration. Taking another look at the title, it is way more negative than I intended to be. It sounds like Obama is going to issue executive orders this January to remove people from office. Clearly, that is not the case.

I’m not sure that I am politically astute enough to understand the motivation behind this yet. Maybe it is just a coincidence. Certainly, one can tell from this list that Obama is drawing from his contenders from the Democratic primary. If they had a shot at president, I suppose they might make a decent Secretary of State. On the other hand, there are plenty of qualified individuals to fill roles like that, potential great Secretaries of State don’t run around running for president usually.

What does everyone else think?

A quick look at some elected official entering the Obama administration:

Former-Senator Obama, himself
Senator Biden
Senator Clinton
Representative Emanuel
Governor Napolitano
Governor Richardson

If I’m missing anyone, let me know. Of course there are other appointments, I think this is all of the elected officials who will become Obama cabinet members. Should be an interesting 4 years.

How Will Conservatives Reach Out to Obama?

Note: this post has been incubating for a while and I decided to publish it in its current form. Part of an effort to get back into political musings.

I am of the belief that this is a critical issue for the GOP to resolve. Conservatives cannot mimic what the Democrats did for the last eight years. I have a post titled “Bush 43″ that has been ruminating in my draft section for more than six months. Bush is not popular among the vast majority of the country, but he is also hated among the vast majority of liberals. This really bothers me, I don’t want to mime this ridiculous behavior.

I have noticed evidence of conservatives reaching out to Obama. One, he campaigned on promises of bipartisanship. Granted, he won, he gets the spoils of that. (No one is expecting a fairness doctrine-esque regulation of the cabinet). Two, every conservative wants to see policies implemented that are best for the country. That doesn’t happen by alienating everyone! Ironically, only a strong Obama presidency will result in this outcome. A strong presidency will be guided by the beliefs of the nation, a moderate-conservative standpoint. I think that we can see this move to the center in Bill Clinton’s presidency.

Update: Recently, we have Obama reaching out to McCain in a formal meeting. Also, Obama has indicated he might keep on Defense Secretary Gates. I hope we see more of this kind of “reaching across the aisle”. It needs to go both ways though because conservatives will absurdly alienate themselves otherwise.



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