Archive for the 'Economics' Category

Starting to Make Taxes Fair

A bipartisan bill to reform the tax code is making its way toward the floor of the Senate. I have not read the full bill, but an editorial today by its co-authors in the Wall Street Journal leaves me with hope:

There is an important issue looming on the congressional horizon: how to address the expiration of the Bush tax cuts at the end of this year. We believe there is a consensus way forward, which is why we are introducing the Bipartisan Tax Fairness and Simplification Act of 2010.

By streamlining and modernizing the outdated tax code, our proposal would eliminate many of the specialized tax breaks that currently benefit one group of Americans over another. The changes we propose will create policies that benefit everyone. They include: fiscally responsible middle-class tax cuts, business tax breaks to help American companies compete globally and create jobs, and a fairer and simpler tax system for all Americans.

Econ 101 – Government Spending

In the first year of macroeconomics I don’t think there is a single student who doesn’t leave with some understanding of fiscal and monetary policy. One controlled by legislators and the other by central bankers. Furthermore, even an elementary reading of Keynes or a brief quote in a textbook makes it clear that government spending (a component of GDP) can be an effective way to encourage growth. Although there are negative effects like crowding out private investment and national debt, the argument goes that these temporary short term problems are worth the long term stability hopefully spurred by government intervention.

The lesson that reality has shown is that there is only an extremely weak multiplier effect for government spending, meaning a dollar spent by the government does not spread throughout the economy in the way originally modelled by Keynes. Moreover and a lesson made clear from the 2009 stimulus bill – getting legislators to allocate money quickly and then spending it is nearly impossible. The tendency is for government spending to dovetail recoveries. This seems to be what is happening now:

The approach this week of the stimulus program’s one-year anniversary sparked a fresh round of dueling partisan statements, as Democrats sought to credit the effort with averting a deeper recession and Republicans said the program deserved a failing grade. But in terms of spending, the stimulus is largely incomplete.

As the economy is recovering, the influx of the majority of the U.S. stimulus money will make the recovery look stronger and more swift than it would be absent extra government spending.

More Analysis on the Euro Mini-Crisis

This morning via Adam I read a great article by the nobel laureate Paul Krugman who happened to win the nobel prize for his work on international finance.

I’m going to walk through this article and try and break down some of the points because I think it is worthwhile to understand the workings of a currency and a federal-style system.

Click to continue reading “More Analysis on the Euro Mini-Crisis”

What Have Governments Learned from the Financial Crisis?

Lesson #1 – Tax Banks

Wait….what?

Fresh from the FT:

Gordon Brown said on Wednesday the world’s leading economies were close to agreeing a global bank tax, amid hopes in Downing Street that a deal can be concluded at the G20 summit in Canada in June.

The prime minister said those with the “broadest shoulders” should pay more, and insisted that the tax would raise “a substantial amount of additional money”. He admitted: “It’s not as high as you would like it to be because of avoidance.”

Click to continue reading “What Have Governments Learned from the Financial Crisis?”

Concern for Our Future

The question to ask about the president’s eye-popping budget, also rolled out last week, is whether it prepares the country for its future—or shackles it to past decisions that our leaders would rather not confront.

This quote from an article written by the dean of the Columbia Business School summarizes many of my feelings on the subject of the size and budget of the U.S. government. Most of you probably heard recently about the $3.8 trillion Obama budget with future ‘plans’ for reducing the deficit. As I have said many times on this blog, budget deficits and national debt do not concern me too much. It certainly does not worry me nearly as much as a major meltdown of our financial system (which it appears has been avoided). But in the long-run a growing national debt can pose problems for the economic health of a nation. The analogous situation for an individual seems obvious:

Click to continue reading “Concern for Our Future”

2009 Q4 GDP Statistics

From the WSJ today:

The U.S. economy surged at the end of 2009, a bigger-than-expected gain driven more by slower inventory liquidation than by consumer spending.

Gross domestic product rose a seasonally adjusted 5.7% annual rate October through December, the Commerce Department said Friday in its first estimate of fourth-quarter GDP.

Don’t read too much into this though:

“Household spending is expanding at a moderate rate but remains constrained by a weak labor market, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit,” the Federal Open Market Committee of policymakers said this week.

Not to say that this is not good news. Obviously, strong growth stats are great when compared to a year of the economy contracting. We should all be wary of over-celebrating two digits meant to estimate the aggregate activity of the world’s largest economy. Undoubtedly, this will appear in papers across the country and around the world this week. The WSJ does a good job of laying out what factors composed the growth and how those changed from last year or last quarter.

Here’s to hoping 2010 turns things around!

Wall Street Reform

I have several posts incubating right now…although I’m not sure exactly why.  So, my glorious return to blogging will come through a tried and true set of topics that have frequently made the pages of this blog – politics/economics.

If you have a minute and some interest in what the result of the financial crisis will be in terms of reforming financial regulation, then take a look at this article.  In all honesty, it is a bit lengthy and will take you more than a minute, but it is worth the read.  Otherwise, I wouldn’t have chosen it for this post.

It is an opinion piece from the FT that goes through some of the political reasons why this bill will be ‘too weak to succeed’ in regulating banks that have become ‘too big to fail’.  It seems at best we will have a continuation of the Q1 2009 status quo with a few new acronyms reminding us that there are some new regulatory agencies.  The rest of the changes, it seems, took place last winter.  These weren’t fundamental changes to regulation, instead we now see a few less bank names in the newspaper because they have either gone out of business or merged.

Don’t get me wrong here.  I’m not some vehement anti-Wall Street person.  I thought the Wall Street/Main Street distinction that plagued the last election was slightly ridiculous.  The point is, and I think this is one that I make frequently, government regulation and institutions shape the world that we live in for the better and the worse.

This is true for the incentives that tax schemes create, regulation of the health insurance industry, and of financial markets and institutions.  I found this point in the FT article particularly interesting:

Link!

Nor is anyone talking seriously about using antitrust laws to break up the biggest banks – the traditional tonic for any capitalist entity that is “too big to fail”. Five giant Wall Street banks now dominate US finance. If it was in the public’s interest to break up giant oil companies and railroads a century ago, and the mammoth telephone company AT&T, it is not unreasonable to break up the almost infinitely extensive tangles of Citigroup, Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. No one has offered a clear reason why giant banks are important to the US economy. Logic and experience suggests the reverse.

If, as taxpayers, we are guaranteeing trillions of dollars of bank assets and the viability of something as fickle as a company, we should consider what we are getting into and whether there is a better way to organize that industry.

I’m not an expert on this subject, but I wonder if people who are experts (or even lawmakers) are considering the alternatives.  This is just one idea that popped up on the computer screen of a twenty-something student.  Where is the debate?  I guess…it is not surprising that one ‘pet’ bill is being ushered through, while everyone tries to make their ends meet.  I suppose, as the 2008 election showed us, voters want politicians to speak economics and business, but not so much that they lose their average Joe likeability.

Response to Last Post: Another Short Post on Climate Change

Recently, Australia delayed the implementation of a cap and trade scheme that was working it’s way through their legislature. Why?

This week Mr. Fielding issued a statement: He would not be voting for the bill. He would not risk job losses on “unconvincing green science.” The bill is set to founder as the Australian parliament breaks for the winter.

Apparently, Nancy Pelosi knows something about economics that the Australians don’t.

Markets Final Respond Positively to a Treasury Plan

Finally, a plan that addresses a root cause of the crisis: housing.

It’s clear that politicians have been dragging their feet on dealing with bad assets in banks. This topic certainly deserves a fool post, but since I’m on vacation, you get a link and a quote.

ut the first-day verdict on the Dow Jones average went in the right direction for Mr. Geithner this time, up nearly 7 percent and 500 points, in contrast to the precipitous slide after Mr. Geithner’s first effort, when his inability to explain in any detail how the program would work left Wall Street jittery about whether the administration had a workable plan.

A Treasury spokeswoman insisted the only difference was that Mr. Geithner had the time to complete details so complicated that they amount to creating a new financial system with global reach. But beyond the substance, the administration also had a more careful plan in place to introduce the proposal, because neither Mr. Geithner nor Mr. Obama could afford another negative review.

The Trip Begins

It’s spring break and I could not be happier to have classes over! My most difficult final, econometrics, went fairly well. I answered all the questions (which I’m quite happy about), so we’ll see if the answers were right.

Monica and I are heading west. Monica wants us to end up at the Grand Canyon in Arizona. I want us to end up in Mesa Verde National Park in Colorado. We’ll see what happens.

We stayed the night in down-state Illinois and we trucked through Missouri today and decided to do some sight-seeing in Kansas City. I’m excited, there is a really nice area called the Power and Light District that I look forward to exploring and getting a few drinks.

I hope everyone is having a great break (even though Minnesota lost).



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