Archive for February, 2009

Thesis Update v .01 –> .02 (patch)

If you need the full version, buy me a beer and send 10 Euro cents over paypal.

I’m pretty sure, I have posted about this before. If you think that I haven’t see Line 1. If you have some inkling, then get this patch:

I’m an economics major, who happens to be graduating this year. I have decided to write a Senior Honors thesis. That basically means I’m doing a legit research project and will write a big paper about it.

I have chosen to conduct research in the area of transportation economics. I’ve worked in transportation for several years and find the economic aspect of it interesting. Specifically, I’m going to analyze gasoline price elasticity of demand and the elasticity of demand for vehicle miles traveled (VMT). This will mean I’m going to run regressions with the left hand variable being Quantity of Gasoline consumed and Vehicle Miles Traveled.

If you’ve had a statistics course, you should be following along okay so far. If you’re interested in doing econometric research download the program STATA and start inputting some of your own data.

I’m gathering data now and will post some of the results as I get them. The end goal being, of course, to impress you with my mediocre econometric knowledge.

If you hate free time…

/etc/init.d/blogpost start

Build yourself a nice little server. Go ahead…do it. If you have finals coming up and you want to spend an hour or two trying to make Synergy work…build yourself a Linux server. If you want to run a printer server, but have little experience with Linux…build a server.

This project has been consuming my time. I’ve been enjoying it thoroughly, but it has to come to a temporary stop. I am boycotting server work until finals are over.

Now, I’m expecting Dan to remind me of the time I start playing CS: Source during his finals. Being in a dorm, he could not help, but notice (I am certain) the joy of signing on and playing a few rounds (which subsequently turned into many rounds).

Fair enough. His server is working. Mine runs, but is not broadcasting anything yet, besides a very unhelpful, small html file. Last night, my efforts to proceed past that were stymied by phpmyadmin not working.

sudo exit

Happy Birthday Dan!

@Up for Grabs

<3, spencerbLife

Server Update (on the hardware side and a brief advocacy of webmin)

First, to take care of some matters from the comments. I can only assume that SSD’s have solved the problems of flash memory. Prices for solid state memory has come down recently, but the size of the drives remains small and the price per GB fairly high. I think that the compact flash issue of write limits has increased past 10,000, but not to the point where it remains viable as an operating under normal circumstances. XP embedded has a write filter that minimizes the number of writes to the drive.

I have scrapped the Compact Flash idea, which will save me money and the time of worrying about it. One tool that I have to recommend anyone working in linux is webmin. I’m still learning the ropes of it, but I have to say it is an incredibly useful tool. It is a graphical interface (AJAX-based?) that you connect to over the web to administer your Linux machine. This includes setting file servers, creating directories, running command lines, and administering web servers (apache, php, mysql, etc). Last night, i set up a file server from my Vista laptop on the Linux box to use for backing up files on my network. It worked beautifully and even mapped as a network drive on an XP laptop.

So, in summary, progress is being made. I was frustrated at first and I’m still waiting for a 5.25″ to 3.5″ bay adapter, but that should arrive shortly.

Now on to the specs:

Motherboard: Intel BOXD945GCLF2
Processor: Atom 330 (comes on board)
Memory: 2 GB DDR2
Graphics: Integrated Intel GMA 950
Hard Drives: 2x Seagate SATA 1.5 TB (in Raid 1, using Linux’s mdadm software Raid)
*Note: Thank you slickdeals for $83 massive hard drives

Operating System: Linux 8.10 “Intrepid Ibex”

This motherboard conforms to the mini-ITX standard. It is tiny! I could not believe my eyes when I saw the box. It is practically the fourth of the size of any ATX motherboard I have worked with and smaller than micro-ATX. The disadvantages to the size are fitting in hard drives (hence my willingness to go big in that department) and finding a decent affordable case. I found that with a Foxconn case that includes a PSU for $50.00, a lot less than my initial budgeting of over $100.

Honestly, this is the best, affordable, mini-ITX. If you have more money to burn, look at Chenbro. Newegg doesn’t sell any mini-ITX PSU’s to my knowledge. Finding a case with a decent power supply was imperative. Foxconn was the only one who made any claims about the efficiency or reliability of their PSU. Other mITX cases had terrible reviews with regard to power supplies.

On the subject of power, one of my motivations for designing this computer was to save money. 1) Webhosting costs and 2) Electricity. 1 is self-explanatory. 2 -I run my gaming computer most of the day just to download. This uses a lot of power. The Atom 330 uses less than 10 watts, the entire board uses about 20 watts. The two hard drives with Raid 1 redundancy use approximately 10 watts total. This is less than the power demands of my Intel core2 processor alone. In essence, I didn’t want to negate the savings from #1, by having a huge power drain.

Not only is the Atom efficient, it is fairly cheap. The board with processor and integrated graphics is $80. One thing that tempted me against buying the Intel board was the MSI Wind nettop 100. Advantages to the MSI system – size and ease, also a built in Compact Flash slot on the motherboard. Now, that I have decided against CF this is not a big issue. The MSI system is slightly smaller because it uses a power brick that sits outside the case. The downside to a small case, less room to work with. (The Foxconn case does a great job of making the small form factor accessible). Also, the MSI kit only takes notebook memory. I’m not sure if that would have a significant effect on performance, it may have a slight cost increase.

That is all I have on the hardware side right now, let me know if you have anymore questions. The cost of the system without hard disks (the most variable part of the system – depending on how much storage one wants: approximately $80 + 50 + 20 = $150. Same cost as the MSI barebones kit, except mine included memory.

Hard drives, were about $85 a piece = $170. Total = $320.

Happy Early Birthday Self.

Linux USB Boot FTL

Translation: Ubuntu Server 8.10 Universal Serial Bus Install For the Lose.

I got too ambitious with my server project. I decided I would try going the route of a ghetto-SSD with a Compact Flash (CF) to IDE adapter. Without the IDE slot open, I then decided to install Ubuntu using a flash drive. It didn’t work. I believe that it kept getting hung up downloading packages because the USB install is a net installer.

Not having an external CDROM and only having one in my house. I decided to take it out of my desktop to do this install right. I have also decided to scrap the CF drive. If you are ever thinking about SSD/Flash memory for a hard drive, I have a few recommendations.

1) It is expensive. Save your money.

2) Don’t use Compact Flash. The memory is getting better, but there are write limits, thus your drive will die from on OS writing to it frequently.

3) Think about Windows XP Embedded.

4) If you do buy one, but a legit SSD.

Daily Northwestern Acknowledges Mock Trial

Thumbs:

Thumbs up to the Northwestern Mock Trial team’s climb into the top five nationally.

This week, The NU mock trial team came in fourth in the nation after three fall tournament victories. Six new coaches, including former team member, Clare Bergeron (Weinberg ‘07), have fueled the rise in ranking. With NU still not a top ten university and only fifth in Big Ten football, the mock trial team provides the university with a ranking it can truly be proud of. In the end, the mock trial team represents the school as only great legal advisers can: superbly.

Another article about us!

Diablo II

To: Dan

Why Diablo II Sucks

December 16, 2000

“Diablo II, despite its great success, is a mockery of a game. Blizzard’s record until its release was essentially flawless — their other games are almost entirely bug free, very well balanced, and of extremely high quality.

Diablo II Is Buggy

* Until recently, several high level items didn’t even drop, due to a typo in the data files. Players of the game had already identified, and fixed (through mods) this bug months ago.
* Damage mods on bows do not work.
* Bugged Barbarian Skills:
o Bash: +Damage does not affect unarmed attacks.
o Leap Attack: Resistances are applied twice. Earlier versions listed a range limit on Leap Attack… this was “fixed” in 1.0.3 by removing the text, not by applying the limit.
o Berserk: This skill is supposed to do magic-type damage, for use against physically resistant monsters. It does not do magic-type damage. It also may INCREASE defense rating significantly if a high level of shout and iron skin are in effect.
o Frenzy: Frenzy ignores attack speed, meaning it does not speed itself up.
o Throwing Mastery: The other five masteries add a critical strike chance at 2 * skill level, throwing mastery does not.
o Iron Skin and Natural Resistance: These skills do not update correctly in the character screen when the character is wearing +skills items.
o Taunt: Taunt experiences display errors.
o Grim Ward: Some grim wards have no effect.
* Bugged Amazon Skills:
o Guided Arrow: This skill’s +damage is not applied. Shots at all levels do 95% damage.
o Strafe: This skill’s damage is applied on top of all other bonuses.
o Evade: “Evade Lock” can occur when attacked by Diablo’s LBOD.
o Penetrate: Penetrate applies strangely to non-bow weaponry.
* Bugged Necromancer Skills:
o Blood Golem: The blood golem absorbs a percentage of any monster it attacks’ TOTAL hitpoints, not the damage done by the attack. This makes necromancers more or less invincible.
o Revive: Sometimes revives die but are not removed from the count of active revives.
o All Poison Attacks: Poison damage is dealt oddly, and is essentially completely ineffective.
o Bone Wall and Bone Prison: Bone structures’ hitpoints increase in nightmare and hell difficulties, but this is not noted in the description.
* Bugged Paladin Skills:
o Zeal: Zeal has serious targeting problems that result in its missing monsters frequently.
o Vengeance: Vengeance applies each element’s damage twice, resulting in six times the damage the skill description shows.
o Conversion: Converted monsters can often rendered “invincible” with a sliver of health left when they unconvert.
o Blessed Hammer: Blessed Hammer is affected by Concentration.
* Bugged Sorceress Skills:
o Blizzard: Blizzard does not hit monsters standing in certain positions.
o Fire Mastery: Fire Mastery does not affect Hydra, despite the skill text.
o Hydra: If Hydra kills a Flayer Shaman, it will fail to target the normal flayer produced.
o Thunder Storm: Thunder Storm often misses, or appears to hit targets but does no damage.
* Many effects, especially the sorceress’ attacks, are drawn twice to everyone but whoever cast them. Even in single player, attacks like the Vampire class monsters’ meteors are drawn twice. The result is huge framerate slowdown.
* Monsters have four times the AR they are listed to have in the data files. This wouldn’t be a problem, but the character screen calculates your defense based on the data file values, not the real values. The result is a number that basically does not correlate to your actual chance to be hit.
* Many unique items list “increased attack speed” among their attributes, but about half of these increase attack speed by 1% rather than the 10% – 30% they should.
* Spell effects radiate out from the player in a four-pointed star shape, not a circle. The result is that most area effect skills actually cover an area three times larger than they should, and extend very far to the N, S, E, and W, but only ‘normal’ distances to the NE, NW, SE, and SW. Static Field and Auras are examples.
* Certain monsters that are supposed to be vulnerable to attacks from a specific element are actually very resistant to those attacks.
* The character screen does not correctly display resistances above 75% (that are achievable through certain items.)
* The “freezes enemies” special effect does not work on bows. It is present on a Set that includes a bow, so it is clearly SUPPOSED to.
* Items beyond character level/attribute requirements can be equipped through a simple process, allowing low level characters to run around with godly equipment.

This is by no means a complete list. I doubt I’ve cataloged a tenth of the known bugs. It’s just off the top of my head.

Diablo II Is Unbalanced

Look at the ladders. Barbarians outnumber every other class easily 10 to 1. Why is this? Because they are disgustingly overpowered. Whirlwind is the game’s most powerful attack. Add onto that combat masteries, which apply to the TOTAL damage, not just the weapon damage like every other skill. To top it off, they add a large chance for critical hit, and barbarians get passives to boost their resistances and Defense Rating. No other class can even begin to approach the raw power of barbarians.

Diablo II introduced skill trees, which supposedly allowed you to customize your character. Unfortunately, for that to work, there would have to be multiple, viable skill plans. There aren’t. There is one “good” skill plan for each character (WW, BG + IM & Revives, FO, Strafe, BH + Conc), a cookie cutter template that everyone uses. Sure, you can make characters using the generally “unused” skills, but they’re basically crippled.

For that matter, most of the skills aren’t even worth investing a point into. Take Fist of the Heavens for example – it is utterly useless. I challenge anyone to come up with a legitimate FotH strat that allows you to do something you can’t do better and faster with another skill.

At least half the skills are either totally useless or completely eclipsed by a later skill, like Ice Bolt -> Ice Blast -> Glacial Spike. Or Leap and Leap Attack… one point in leap attack gets you everything 20 points in leap would, AND the ability to attack rather than just jump around.

Diablo II Is Of Low Quality

Many areas of Diablo II show evidence of extremely poor game planning. The game uses an “active load” system in which areas are loaded “on the fly”. This supposedly means that you don’t have to look at any load screens — what it actually means is that unless you have extremely recent hardware, far above the game’s “minimum requirements”, you get a black screen just like a load screen, except that monsters can hit you!. Being beaten down while waiting for the game to load a waypoint, or, especially, Duriel (an extremely powerful boss who gets to attack you while you’re loading his room), has killed more characters than anything else. The whole system is really, really stupid.

Other features that were touted as major new features, like gems and set items, play a very minimal role in the game. The fact is that they suck, like many of the skills.

Diablo II was put through a hurried beta process. This is obvious – if anyone had ever taken five minutes to USE Frenzy, they would notice it did not work properly. In the original release, WW was several orders of magnitude more powerful than it is now. Blizzard has also failed to respond reasonably to being notified of the existance of bugs. It took them months to resolve the item drop bug, despite the availability of SPECIFIC instructions on EXACTLY how to fix it. The exact reasons other skills don’t work, even to the point of what is happening in the code (they aren’t passing a pointer in the Berserk skill’s function, for instance), is known, and yet Blizzard fails to fix them.

This is Why Diablo II Sucks.”

<3 Minneapolis Viewers

Google Analytics demands that I give a shout out to my Minneapolis, MN viewers.

Keep reading and I’ll keep blogging (actually, I probably will regardless, but keep on anyway).

<3,

spencerb

Proxies for Confidence

In the social sciences, you cannot always observe the variable whose effect you wish to measure. For instance, there is no single exact measure of car safety. So, one might use percentage of cars with seat belts or number of airbags. In this case, these variables become a proxy for safety. In other words, they stand in the analysis in place of the unobservable variable.

Using proxies can be dangerous. Sometimes variables will unintentionally serve as proxies for other variables. For example, consider a time-series where number of accidents and the average speed limit is observed each year. Over time, the number of accidents goes down as the speed limit goes up. Does this mean I should drive 80 mph around my neighborhood to avoid an accident? That does not seem to make sense. It seems more likely that safety features and the quality of cars have increased over time, allowing the speed limit to increase while overall the number of accidents falls. Speed limits over time served as a proxy for safety, with undesirable consequences.

Currently, as we are all well aware, the United States is dealing with an economic recession and a financial crisis. Partly, I argue, the government is at fault for this crisis. For the past 6 months, the government has been responding and attempting to remedy the recession and the crisis. Starting with the Bush Administration and continuing with Obama, the willingness of the government to spend money has been pushed upon us as a proxy for confidence. In my opinion, this proxy will also lead to undesirable consequences.

Intuition lends some insight into this ’solution’. If a gambler has lost everything and goes to the bank to borrow a little bit more, to win it all back, would you lend money to him? Rarely, do we, as a society, view borrowing as a solution to debt. Except, of course, in the case of the U.S. government. Historically, we have griped about this debt, but dealt with it and prospered. The size of the government in absolute terms has grown tremendously since the founding of this great nation.

Now, we have what appears to be a specific problem with banking and housing. Perhaps things are not so simple because the government has yet to aggressively address these issues. It appears more willing to spend money on its agenda and bailout corporations. If we had a plan buried in the trillions of dollars we are spending, we expect to see the willingness to spend money be positively related to confidence and recovery, even though, as in the safety-speed example, the plan was the real cause, not the proxy. We don’t have a plan buried in the proxy though. Not that I’ve seen. Not that the Treasury Secretary has proposed. Not that the markets have responded to (positively).

We have an empty proxy for confidence. When that shroud disappears, we will be disappointed with what we see. Trillions of dollars in TARP and a stimulus bill. Money that we can’t get back, but we can only pray serves its role.

Ohhhhh Illinois…

Roland Burris….Roland Burris….Roland Burris…

*Shakes Head*

Blago’s gone, but he lives on politically through his appointment of Roland Burris to the U.S. Senate. Mr. Burris, famous for his ego, apparently lied or avoided answering a very direct question about his connections to Blago. Republicans are now calling for his resignation. I’m not sure he is qualified to be a U.S. Senator anyway, but this changes things.

Comprehensive Fox News Report



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